回复 15# farshine
Solid Gains Usually Follow Flat Years
By Christopher Mistal
With all of the market volatility in 2011, it is somewhat shocking that the S&P 500 finished the year just 0.04 points lower (-0.003%) than where it began. Since 1930, including 2011, there have been eleven years where the S&P 500 finished flat (+3/-3%). In eight of the following ten full years, the S&P 500 went on to post full-year gains, averaging a very respectable 17.9%. In post-election year 1957, a bear market ended in October and the year finished off 14.3%. 1948 was the other losing year and the only flat year to follow a flat year, when Truman famously upset Dewey to retain the White House. The only other election year (bolded in table) to be preceded by a flat year was 1988, but that year finished well with a 12.4% gain.
S&P 500 Performance Following Flat (+3/-3%) Years Since 1930
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发表于 2011-12-31 00:01
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发表于 2012-1-31 00:13
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