The first scenario: Things get better by March, production is restarted in China, and the disruption is contained to the first quarter. In this scenario, U.S. economic growth dips to 2.5% in the first half of the year but picks up, the research analysts wrote.作者: not4weak 时间: 2020-2-29 21:10
The second scenario? Escalation and more disruption in the second quarter. In this case, the virus peaks in May, growth in the first half of 2020 goes to 2.4% – the weakest since the financial crisis – and third quarter sees things picking back up.作者: not4weak 时间: 2020-2-29 21:10
The worst and third scenario: The virus persists into the Q3. This scenario, analysts wrote, would escalate the risk of a recession. It would affect all large economies. Corporate profits get hit hard and credit risk for corporations spikes. In Europe, scenario 3 would cause an “outright recession,” according to the analysts. China would see growth of 6.1% in Q1 and the U.S. would have a “soft pickup.”
In the U.S., there would also be a temporary rise in unemployment of almost 200 basis points, or 2 percentage points. The Fed would keep cutting rates, and aggressively in 0.5 percentage point increments.
For this scenario, no medical solution would be in place yet, though there’s currently a drug in trials from Gilead (GILD) that could stop transmissions.作者: mermaidyu 时间: 2020-2-29 22:46
回复 10# 小昭mm 
