[闲谈] 20120913 YYB日间灌水

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小小低开。

今天，不用说看点在联储报告。如果没记错是2点

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美联储决策在即 是否QE3悬念将解
http://www.sina.com.cn  2012年09月13日 17:31  新浪财经微博
　　核心提示：北京时间14日凌晨0:30，美联储将结束为期两天的政策会议并公布最新货币政策。0-0.25%的超低利率政策将保持不变没有任何悬念，而联储是否会推第三轮量化宽松政策(QE3)万众瞩目。QE旨在压低借款成本并提振经济，联储通过前两轮量化宽松已购买2.3万亿美元资产。

　　在疲软的8月就业报告公布后，华尔街分析师对美联储推出新一轮国债购买计划(即QE3)可能性的预期从8月调查时的60%提高到65%。

　　51位分析师认为，美联储推出新一轮量化宽松(QE3)的机率超过50%。其中有39位预计联储将在本周(9月15日当周)采取行动，另有10位分析师认为联储将在2012年年底前采取行动，还有两位没有预测时间。

　　分析师认为，美联储可能采取行动抵消经济复苏面临的若干阻力因素，其中包括全球增长放缓的前景、欧元区债务危机、以及美国2013年初生效的一系列增税和削减支出政策。

　　大型投行当中，高盛认为QE3的几率超过50%。巴克莱、瑞银和摩根大通全都预测美联储将启动新一轮资产采购。持不同观点的有野村、Business Insider等。双方都举出了不少证据来佐证自己的观点，各家都能自圆其说，而到底有没有QE3只能等待美联储14日凌晨来揭晓。

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大本为自己的工作而战

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盘前：美联储决定前美股期指走低
http://www.sina.com.cn  2012年09月13日 18:45  新浪财经微博
　　新浪财经讯 北京时间9月13日晚间消息，周四美股期指走低。亚洲和欧洲股市也同降，投资者在联邦公开市场委员会会议给出结果前变得谨慎。

　　美东时间9月13日06:23(北京时间9月13日18:23)，道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌25点，报13,336点，跌幅为0.19%；纳斯达克100指数期货下跌10点，报2,786.25点，跌幅为0.34%；标准普尔500指数期货下跌3.3点，报1,436.20点，跌幅为0.21%。

　　美联储长达两天的货币政策会议将于周四结束，北京时间明晨00:30将公布结果。美联储主席伯南克定于明晨2:15举行记者会。

　　GFT市场高级市场策略师David Morrison在写过投资者的研报中表示：“毫无疑问，投资者已经计入了美联储推出实质性行动的影响。预期是美联储将推出新一轮大规模资产采购项目，类似于2010年6000亿美元的QE2计划。

　　但他称市场或会失望，因为美联储或决定等到年底“扭转操作”结束、欧元区形势显得稳定时。他称：“所以新一轮宽松伴随的语言至关重要。”

　　周三收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨9.99点，收于13,333.35点，涨幅为0.07%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨9.78点，收于3,114.31点，涨幅为0.32%；标准普尔500指数上涨3.00点，收于1,436.56点，涨幅为0.21%。

　　苹果股票将成为焦点。昨日苹果公布了iPhone 5，巴克莱资本分析师Ben Reitzes将苹果目标股价由750美元上调至810美元，称他预计苹果推出iPhone 5将取得成功，还期待苹果今年秋季晚些时候推出其它主要新产品。(俊逸)

aimei

morning

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今天忙，可能没时间灌水。

Good luck

aimei

12:30pm
not 2pm

喜欢热闹

西门吹雪

victor101

Diver

Diver

ZT from pro:

Will Bernanke Rock the Boat?


Wednesday gave us 2 of 3 big events we were focused on this week. First, the German constitutional court ruled favorably on the legality and proposed uses of the European Stability Mechanism [ESM] bailout fund. Then Apple presented its latest and greatest smartphone, the aptly named iPhone 5.

As positive as they were, the market basically yawned over both potential catalysts. Now today brings a very significant FOMC meeting. Why is this one any more important than the last or the next? Because it is one of the special quarterly Fed parties where we get fresh economic forecasts on GDP, inflation, and unemployment. And we get a Big Ben press conference too.

Throw in there wide expectations for some type of new Large-Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP, aka QE3) in a range of $200 to $500 billion and you've got the makings of a pretty big Fed day. I don't care whether the economy needs more stimulus or not. I just care what big market players think and want right now – especially ahead of the election.

Guesses and Facts

My educated guess is that the current market environment is fairly independent of new QE, and that the heavy lifting that needs to be done is already coming from Europe. If Ben and Co. do offer new actions, it will be viewed as just another tweak to ensure that bond and housing markets stay on their smooth course of supporting the economy.

If they don't, maybe they are being prudent, saving their ammo, and staying clear of the political fray. Either way, I think the market continues to rally up to the election.

Diver

ZT:

as of today, three of four near-term ST trend indicators are edging downward and two have declined from being overbought. There is slight evidence the near-term trend indicators will form bases near current levels for the DJIA and S&P500 index from which to rally more. Once bases are consolidated, the DJIA is expected to climb to 13,500 and the S&P500 index to 1,450.

tfmegatron

victor101

看看来牛牛美死了。。。