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读读书 发表于 2014-11-25 19:28 
he Gold Report -- 2015
The following brief was adapted from recent analysis published Nov. 11, 2014, in the Financial Forecast Service, authored by EWI's top U.S. analysts, Steve Hochberg, Peter Kendall and Robert Prechter. An expanded, in-depth, 15-page version of the report is available free to subscribers. Learn more and get access now, or continue reading the free version below.
Excerpted from the Elliott Wave Theorist/Financial Forecast Interim Report
November 11, 2014
A Bullish Juncture as Gold Bugs Finally Bug Out
On September 2, 2011, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast cited a just-released Gallup poll that showed Americans considered gold to be the best long-term investment, beating out real estate, stocks/mutual funds, savings accounts/CDs and bonds. We forecast the following: "it is surely a sign of exhaustion and perhaps the strongest sign of a gold top." The issue added, "Gold's wave structure is consistent with a terminating rise." Prices peaked two trading days later at $1921.50 on September 6, 2011. Despite record monetary stimulus in QE3 and QE4, years of political crises in the Mideast and Russia's invasion and annexation of part of its neighbor Ukraine, EWT and EWFF have maintained a bearish stance toward gold. Now, for the first time in three years, the wave structure can be labeled a complete five waves down from September 2011, which indicates a significant countertrend gold rally at hand.
... [there has been] a recent sea change in sentiment toward gold. [It] does not reflect the breadth of bearishness that existed in 2001, but it's negative enough for an intermediate-term low.
Other measures of investor psychology concur. Two weeks before gold's September 2011 peak, the 5-day Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) rose to 96% gold bulls, a record optimistic extreme that dates back to April 1987, when the data start. Last week, on November 5, the 5-day DSI fell to just 5%, a record pessimistic extreme. So far, that is the day of the daily closing low for gold at $1140.52.
The chart also shows the position of gold traders who use futures and options, as compiled each week in the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report. Small Traders hold positions whose size is under the minimum reporting requirements to the CFTC. In October 2012, as gold was making a lower wave (2) high at just under $1800, small traders were so convinced that gold would continue higher that they held their biggest net-long position in over 11 years. Now, with gold down 36% since then, Small Traders are so convinced that gold will continue lower that they hold their biggest net-short position in 15 years. Current levels of sentiment are consistent with the end of a Primary-degree decline and the start of a rally.
Our chart shows that gold has traced out five Intermediate waves down from September 2011. It is also possible to label five waves down within Intermediate wave (5), terminating at the closing low at $1140.52 on November 5 and the intraday low at $1131.85 on November 7.
If these lows are wave A, as shown by the "You Are Here" arrow on the Simple Schematic, wave B will carry gold higher into 2015. A reasonable target range is $1433-$1500. Even if wave (5) down isn't over yet, this will remain the ideal target range for wave B when it occurs. |
发表于 2014-11-25 20:17
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